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The Trump Economy – Frank Small Says It Is Unmatched? What is the Truth? An Assessment

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Recently a neighbor in Berrien County (Frank Small) who has been interviewed by Support the Center, posted the picture chart shown just below.

Frank was rewarded for his post with numerous positive comments.  He claimed he had “proved” the obvious truth that Trump had created a great economy compared to the terrible economy he inherited from Obama.

I replied to his post by saying, “These ‘facts’ as a comparison of the economic track record of Obama versus Trump are so misleading as to not be truthful.  If one has a concern for truth, then the entire record of Obama has to be posted.”

Frank countered my assertion by saying, “William Hurst sometimes it’s hard to see the forest except for trees”.

This blog is

  1. a refutation of the nature of Frank’s counter.  Granted, Frank is a biased cheerleader, with advocacy as the goal,
  2. a critique of the exaggerations (not limited to Trump supporters) which riddle political Facebook posts, and finally,
  3. a reasoned examination and assessment of the Trump economy to date so we can assess where we stand, and think about future policy we want Trump and/or Congress to pursue.

I originally was going to reply to Frank within his post, on Facebook, but decided instead to put my reply on Support the Center, from which I will copy it to my Facebook page and then to Frank’s post, to get more exposure, and frankly, to maximize the value of this effort.  I have noticed that folks who use Facebook as their main vehicle for political expression are often blessed by the ease with which misleading posts can be generated.   Evidence is in short supply.   I wish I could bring myself to reply with one misleading sentence!!   In  a country where group-think is so prevalent, having a conscience that requires more than a one sentence answer is, in one sense, a curse.  But the extra effort below means this write-up must be utilized in multiple venues.

Taken On Their Own, Frank’s Comparative Facts Are Incomplete; We Need the Whole Picture

Frank’s assertion that “seeing the tree without the context of the forest” is false.  A priori, regardless of circumstance, when doing economic analysis it is always better to know the full context within which specific data points fit.  Trends are critical to seeing the whole picture.  Exploring overall context is critical to assessing the economic performance of one President versus another.

[Read more…] about The Trump Economy – Frank Small Says It Is Unmatched? What is the Truth? An Assessment

An Interview with David Benac, Candidate in the Democratic Primary for US House of Representatives in SW Michigan

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David is an unabashed progressive, but his enthusiasm and knowledge shines through this interview.

How we will pay for his proposals was not well explained. But he is knowledgeable.

One interesting idea from David is that we need representatives from the far right and left and through their dialogue lawmakers will reach the middle. This is not the experience we’ve seen over the past 35 years, but I hope he is right. I think electing centrist candidates is the best way to achieve centrist results. But David seems extremely sincere in his preference for dialogue and relationships to achieve consensus. He is thoughtful and well informed.

Have a listen to David and get to know his views and him better:

An Interview with Dave Pagel, Republican Primary Candidate for the Michigan Senate

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Dave Pagel interviewed Support The Center (supportthecenter.org) at his Berrien Springs Apple Packing plant on 7/23.

Dave primarily votes Republican (97% of the time). However, what came through in this interview is his integrity and a sincere desire to do the right thing even if it means voting independently of his leadership. He says he avoids a façade, and he is a “what you see and hear is what you get” kind of guy. He avoids ideological posturing, and clearly is someone who is interested in good programs to improve the State’s education (his public service started out as School Board Chairman in Berrien Springs, serving for many years), roads, prison systems (he heads the State Committee controlling 20BN in appropriations and developing reforms).

In this day and age of political posturing, Dave is refreshing.

He explained the life of public service he has lived, even while running his packing business which employs 20+ (depending on the season).

Take a listen to learn about Dave’s views and to learn about him as a person:

 

US Democracy is at Risk – A Review of “How Democracies Die”

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Those of us brought up to respect rational problem solving, see how polarization and resulting extremism has eroded US democracy.    This deterioration preceded Trump, but Trump’s lack of respect for democratic norms of behavior has accelerated the risks to our democratic institutions.

To better understand the risks,  this book, “How Democracies Die”, by Harvard experts Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, is a great guide.   They provide a guide to how democracies around the world have been subverted within recent decades, without military coups, by democratically elected authoritarian leaders.

In example after example, they show how violations of democratic norms, without violations of laws, damage democratic guardrails such as a free press and an independent judiciary.  Once those guardrails are damaged, those responsible are better able to revise laws and institutions to maim or kill democracy in their countries.

After providing international examples of how democracies were subverted (Chavez in Venezuela, Orban in Hungary, Fujimora in Peru and others), the authors examine “guardrails of democracy” in the US, explain how some of these have already deteriorated prior to Trump, and then explain how Trump’s authoritarian actions pose an unprecedented threat to remaining guardrails.  The erosion of these guardrails, which started in the 1970’s with  (ironically) reforms to the party primary systems and resulted in the polarization of both parties, accelerated in the 1990’s.  Trump accelerates the erosion through his attacks on basic democratic norms, as explained below. [Read more…] about US Democracy is at Risk – A Review of “How Democracies Die”

Kim and Dave Fritz – Interview with Baroda Trump Supporters

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Kim and Dave had a great conversation with Support The Center (supportthecenter.org).

Dave feels Americans should be willing to pay more for American made goods.   He is ok with tariffs.  But as we discussed NAFTA for example, which Trump may blow up, Dave and Kim did not feel blowing it up would be good overall.  We discussed TPP and the fact that the Asian countries in TPP have formed their own TPP, this time without the US, but with China.  When Dave and Kim learned that Trump took us out of the TPP, at the risk of isolation, this gave them some pause.

We discussed the 2018 Trump tax reductions, and Dave approved of it as long as he gets a cut.  But Support The Center pointed out the extraordinary percent of the tax cut benefits going to the super-rich, thus adding to the deficit and indirectly hurting everyone else when this borrowed money has to be repaid.   This gave Dave and Kim some pause.

Take a listen to their views:

US Government Budget and Deficits – The US is on an Unsustainable Path, Which Only Centrist Policies Can Correct

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No topic is more fraught with misunderstanding than one about fiscal responsibility and the Federal Government.  We outline several areas of misunderstanding, and some perspective and a framework to be used to guide the discussion.

Where Does the Money Go?

There is a lack of understanding of where our Government spends its (our) money and the tough choices that will need to be made to reduce the deficit.  I will never forget when Jillie and Marko (the names are changed) came up the driveway and upon seeing their Trump sticker, I asked why they supported him.  “Because I’m tired of our Government spending all it’s money on foreign countries!”  When informed that spending on other governments, including foreign aid, military assistance and humitarian aid is less than 1% of Federal spending and therefore well under .25% of GDP,  Jillie was surprised.  (Despite her surprise, her mind was not changed by mere facts.)

Another misunderstanding is how much money goes to “welfare” defined narrowly as money provided to the non-working poor (but without Medicaid included).  In 2015, about $235BN (<6%) of a $4.11 TN dollar budget could have been classified as welfare under this definition.  About a third of this ($75BN) went to food stamps which support a broad cross-section of the population (44MM at the peak of the Great Recession).  Many who get food stamp assistance are not poor, for example many young people collect food stamps. [Read more…] about US Government Budget and Deficits – The US is on an Unsustainable Path, Which Only Centrist Policies Can Correct

Michael Shelton defends liberal policies and principles.

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Michael Shelton, from Stevensville, MI clearly articulates his beliefs in this video.   The Middle class should get a bigger slice of the pie.  Trickle down doesn’t work; that the Republican mythology since Reagan.  How much money do the rich need before they create more jobs and wealth for the rest of us, Michael asks?  Trump is erratic and incompetent.  Take a listen to his views:

A Trump Supporter – Mark Schutze of Baroda, MI

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As you will learn from the video interview below, Mark Schutze says he voted for Trump because he feels Trump is a good businessman.  Mark tends to vote Republican.  He recognizes Trump can be a bully, but he felt he was better than Hillary and he preferred an outsider.   He did not feel we had great choices in the 2016 election.  He talks about how politicians shouldn’t serve for too long as they learn how to use their positions to enrich themselves.  Have a listen:

https://youtu.be/ogRzuw7VS2g

 

An Interview with a Trump Supporter – Frank Small of Stevensville

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As you will learn from the video interview below, Frank Small considers himself a conservative.  And he believes Trump is doing “good things” – 173 good things in his first year, to be exact.  He talked most about the tax cut and its beneficial effects.  In this one hour long interview, Frank and I cover many topics.   Have a listen:

Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariff Will Hurt American Workers and Further Damage the International Trading Order

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Trump is expected to announce steel and aluminum tariffs on 03/08 (today), against the advice of his chief economic advisor (who resigned as a result) and many Republicans in Congress including Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House.

Trump supporters, Steve Bannon, big steel and steelworkers might tout that we are finally striking back at China’s dumping of steel, but the implementation of these tariffs is so clumsy, so devoid of strategy, so ignorant of basic economic theory and practice, and so offensive to our allies who might otherwise be able to help our cause in this case, that the harm will surely outweigh the good.   And this is true even if no retaliation against US products takes place, the absence of which is unlikely.

Here are facts about the tariffs and who might be helped by them and who might be hurt: [Read more…] about Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariff Will Hurt American Workers and Further Damage the International Trading Order